← Mortal Ambitions Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Mortal Ambitions Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 13.3% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.3% | +1.3 |
| Fire Exia | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dewdrop Hares | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Desperate Dive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |